Housing Supply Up 12%, Stale Listings Create Challenges in Market
Dec 31, 2024
Written by David Dodge
The housing market is experiencing a significant shift, with supply levels reaching their highest point in four years. However, this surge in available homes is not solely a sign of a thriving market; it also reflects a growing number of unsold properties.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Recent data reveals that over half of the homes listed for sale in November remained unsold for 60 days or more, marking the highest percentage for that month since 2019. This trend contributed to a notable 12% increase in housing supply. Specifically, the total number of active listings rose by 0.5% month-over-month and 12.1% year-over-year, reaching levels not seen since 2020.
Despite ongoing discussions about a housing shortage in the U.S., the reality is more complex. A significant factor behind the increase in supply is the accumulation of homes that buyers are reluctant to purchase, often due to perceived overpricing.
The Stagnation of Listings
In November, 54.5% of homes listed for sale were on the market for at least 60 days without securing a contract. This figure is up from 49.9% the previous year and represents the slowest pace for homes going under contract in November since 2019. According to an analysis of listings on Redfin.com, which dates back to 2012, this trend highlights a growing issue of stale inventory in the market.
Meme Loggins, a real estate agent with Redfin in Portland, OR, notes, “A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough.” She emphasizes that homes priced competitively and in good condition are selling quickly, while those that are overpriced can linger for months.
Regional Insights: Florida and Texas Lead in Stale Inventory
The situation varies significantly across different regions. In Miami, for instance, 63.8% of listings were on the market for 60 days or longer, the highest among the top 50 metropolitan areas. Other cities in Texas and Florida, such as Austin (62.4%) and Fort Lauderdale (62.3%), also reported high percentages of stale listings.
The rapid construction of new homes in these states has contributed to the rising inventory, but factors like increasing HOA fees, high insurance costs, and the threat of natural disasters are causing potential buyers to hesitate.
The Bright Spots: Areas with Lower Stale Listings
Conversely, some metropolitan areas are faring better in terms of stale inventory. Providence, RI, reported the lowest share of listings on the market for 60 days or more at 38.2%. Other cities with lower percentages include Milwaukee (38.8%) and Montgomery County, PA (41.4%).
Interestingly, only three metropolitan areas saw a decrease in stale listings compared to the previous year: Philadelphia, Chicago, and San Francisco.
50 Most Populous U.S. Metropolitan Areas
Data: Share of Listings on Market for at Least 60 Days Without Going Under Contract
| U.S. Metro Area | Share of Listings on Market for at Least 60 Days | YoY Change in Share (ppts) | YoY Change in Active Listings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim, CA | 45.3% | 7.8 | 22.8% |
| Atlanta, GA | 54.6% | 7.8 | 0.4% |
| Austin, TX | 62.4% | 4.8 | 0.9% |
| Baltimore, MD | 42.7% | 2.3 | 10.9% |
| Boston, MA | 44.2% | 4 | 5.0% |
| Charlotte, NC | 51.4% | 9 | 23.4% |
| Chicago, IL | 44.9% | -0.7 | -0.8% |
| Cincinnati, OH | 43.0% | 1.3 | 36.3% |
| Cleveland, OH | 43.3% | 2.7 | 2.6% |
| Columbus, OH | 44.2% | 7 | 13.4% |
| Dallas, TX | 55.1% | 8.7 | 21.6% |
| Denver, CO | 55.9% | 7.1 | 24.8% |
| Detroit, MI | 48.4% | 2.1 | -1.6% |
| Fort Lauderdale, FL | 62.3% | 12 | 34.3% |
| Fort Worth, TX | 55.0% | 5.5 | 12.9% |
| Houston, TX | 55.2% | 1.8 | 10.6% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 46.9% | 1.1 | 5.8% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 58.5% | 7.5 | 28.5% |
| Kansas City, MO | 49.6% | 1.6 | 9.3% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 50.7% | 5.6 | 21.8% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 52.0% | 6.6 | 17.3% |
| Miami, FL | 63.8% | 9.4 | 24.6% |
| Milwaukee, WI | 38.8% | 0.3 | 1.8% |
| Minneapolis, MN | 49.2% | 1.6 | 5.6% |
| Montgomery County, PA | 41.4% | 4 | 8.1% |
| Nashville, TN | 53.7% | 4.5 | 13.5% |
| Nassau County, NY | 49.8% | 0.9 | 1.5% |
| New Brunswick, NJ | 45.2% | 2.1 | 9.4% |
| New York, NY | 56.4% | 0.2 | 1.3% |
| Newark, NJ | 46.4% | 3.7 | -2.5% |
| Oakland, CA | 47.8% | 8.5 | 18.4% |
| Orlando, FL | 59.9% | 11 | 24.9% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 51.0% | -1.7 | 0.7% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 49.3% | 8.2 | 22.3% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 52.2% | 2.5 | 5.1% |
| Portland, OR | 58.7% | 4.2 | -1.2% |
| Providence, RI | 38.2% | 3.6 | 12.1% |
| Riverside, CA | 50.8% | 4.3 | 21.2% |
| Sacramento, CA | 48.8% | 7.3 | 18.9% |
| San Antonio, TX | 60.3% | 4.4 | 2.8% |
| San Diego, CA | 46.1% | 11 | 28.9% |
| San Francisco, CA | 53.4% | -0.5 | -1.8% |
| San Jose, CA | 41.8% | 7.6 | 8.5% |
| Seattle, WA | 51.8% | 4.2 | 18.3% |
| St. Louis, MO | 43.4% | 0.2 | 5.7% |
| Tampa, FL | 56.9% | 12.3 | 19.1% |
| Virginia Beach, VA | 43.1% | 4.2 | 9.0% |
| Warren, MI | 41.7% | 0.3 | 4.5% |
| Washington, D.C. | 44.4% | 0.8 | 9.6% |
| West Palm Beach, FL | 59.6% | 11 | 25.7% |
Conclusion
The current housing market reflects a complex situation where increased supply is overshadowed by a significant number of unsold homes. Factors like overpricing and regional economic conditions contribute to this stagnation. For sellers, pricing competitively is essential to attract buyers, while buyers may find opportunities in areas with lower competition. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed will be crucial for making sound decisions.The current housing market reflects a complex situation where increased supply is overshadowed by a significant number of unsold homes. Factors like overpricing and regional economic conditions contribute to this stagnation. For sellers, pricing competitively is essential to attract buyers, while buyers may find opportunities in areas with lower competition. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed will be crucial for making sound decisions. For more insights, you can explore the original report here [https://www.redfin.com/news/unsold-housing-inventory-november-2024/]
